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Investors are now tasked with trying to understand where bond yields go next, and what the drivers of those yields would be. Forget about the technical charts, he says — they are not driving the bond market right now. While Fed policy has consequences for the bond market, investors drive the yield, Johnson said. That means trying to predict where bond yields will settle will be very hard. But fear in the stock market could translate to greed in the bond market as investors flee to safety.
Persons: Paul Ciana, Gordon Johnson, , Johnson, Ed Yardeni, Kevin Zhao, Liz Truss, Ray Dalio, Fitch, Eric Leve, Michael Gayed, there's, Russell, Leve, hasn't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, GLJ Research, UBS Asset Management, CNBC, Greenwich Economic, Tidal Financial, P Bank ETF, BlackRock Locations: Bridgewater, Greenwich
An intensifying bond rout is piling pressure on the global economy and creating a "tremendously dangerous" outlook for equities, the chief investment officer of Livermore Partners hedge fund said Friday. Bond yields move inversely to prices. That, in turn, has pushed bond yields higher and sapped money from government budgets by raising borrowing costs. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, yields have hit their highest level since the 2011 euro zone debt crisis. "I think that is going to cause a lot of pain moving forward in terms of the economy," Neuhauser said.
Persons: David Neuhauser, Neuhauser, Bond, Kevin Zhao, Scott Heins Organizations: Livermore Partners, CNBC, U.S . Treasury, UBS Asset, New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Getty Locations: Germany, Europe's, Japan, NY, New York City
'The bond vigilante is coming back,' UBS strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Andrew Kelly | ReutersThe bond vigilantes are coming back as investors continue to sell amid the prospect of higher for longer interest rates and a growing fiscal deficit, according to Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management. "The bond vigilante is coming back, so this is very important for asset prices in equity, house prices, fiscal policy, monetary policy, so no longer is this a free ride on bond markets anymore — so the government has to be very careful in terms of the future. "A few months ago, most people expected the U.S. government deficit would keep going down with growth slowing — it was 3.9% last year and it's actually going up with growth slowing — that is quite alarming for bond investors." The term "bond vigilantes" refers to bond market investors who protest against monetary or fiscal policy they fear is inflationary by selling bonds, thereby increasing yields. Fed fund futures pricing reflects a 98% probability that the central bank keeps its main interest rate unchanged at the current target range of 5.25-5.5% at its next monetary policy meeting.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Kevin Zhao, Jerome Powell, Zhao, Liz Truss, it's Organizations: UBS Asset Management, Treasury, Federal, U.S, Treasury Department, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: British, Treasurys
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA Fed rate hike of 50 basis points is a 'certainty,' UBS Asset Management saysKevin Zhao of UBS Asset Management says the terminal rate is important but what the U.S. Federal Reserve does afterward is even more so.
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